'While the company maintains that its hardware and software product development roadmap is intact and that execution will not be impaired, we think the accelerating pace of cost cuts could elevate the risk profile around both. Nevertheless, we view the opex cut positively as it addresses a key investor concern around GoPro's level of cash burn (recall its cash balance fell 54% yoy last quarter). At this level of opex, we think it is possible for GoPro to achieve its target of non-GAAP profitability in 2017, which would significantly improve its FCF; we forecast 2017 FCF of $2mn compared to ($151mn) in 2016. However, we still do not forecast sufficient earnings power to support the stock's current valuation.' 'Top-line growth and TAM remain key areas of concern: GPRO appears to have taken the hard but strategic step to refocus the business and optimize cost structure.
We believe investors' main concerns remain with top-line growth potential and addressable market, as well as execution risk. Shares have fallen 33% since the 4Q16 results call on Feb 3 (vs.
Nasdaq +4%), which we believe underscores these risks... We have left our 1Q17/FY17/FY18 revenue estimates unchanged at $204mln (+11.4% y-o-y)/$1,322mln (+11.5% y-o-y)/ $1,475 mln revenue (+11.6% y-o-y). Our 1Q17/FY17/FY18 EPS estimates are now ($0.40)/$0.15/$0.43 vs. ($0.47)/($0.43)/($0.27) previously.' 'While GoPro's pre-announcement was likely aimed at quelling the shorts, questions remain around new product innovation amid such drastic cost cuts. Management reiterating double-digit growth in 2017 makes it hard to argue for further near-term downside, but we need better visibility into demand before changing our more neutral stance on the shares with the stock already trading below 1x EV/ sales... While the revenue pre-announcement at the high end of the $190 million to $210 million guided range is positive, given Q1 is the lowest quarter of the year, we didn't find the magnitude of the Q1 upside as heroic given management pointed to Karma as the primary driver. Incremental job cuts preserve significantly more cash vs. Our previous forecast, which is the biggest positive; however, in general, investors may not ascribe full credit to a move like this given the obvious headwinds it tends to signal regarding new product development and overall innovation for the future.'
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